STRATEGY: MODEL TRADES: UPDATED FOR 05/22/08
COMMENTS: The futures are mildly POSITIVE (8:15 pm PDT) currently but could change before the open. Futures are showing a little positive as the DOW and S&P 500 held some supports from yesterda throughout the day as trading looked a little lighter in front of 3 day holiday. It will probably be slower even tomorrow. I have added a one day buy situation in case SUTR drops a little lower, and probably won't happen, but it looks pretty good with support at $7. If it happened it would give us a split of steel stocks between GSI and SUTR. I only have it for Friday and if it doesn't take, we'll reevaluate next week. Big hit in model today with 2 stocks or it would have been slightly positive. CSIQ had 2 down grades and TBSI priced an offering and the short sellers immediately jumped on the news and took it well below 51 to low of 45.30 and it closed at 47.49. I see the Alert showed 400 sh of CSIQ, but we sold 200 in front of earnings at 31.80. We are well ahead of our last addition at 18.52.
DJIA supp 12,600/12,986 (FRI close)
NASDAQ 2400 (2528)
S&P 500 1360/(1425)
Russ 2000: 684/714 (741)
Model Trading Procedures: As much as practical I provide advance notice in the strategy section of the website the night before the next trading day of possible prices or what stocks I am looking to buy or sell. Occasionally an opportunity develops during the day that is too good to pass up as stocks sometimes drop on rumors or raise guidance, etc that make them attractive. We have been following this procedure for most of the years Poormans has had a model (since starting in 1996), but we got away from it for a while and went back to it on 6/9/07. I tried for nearly 2 years to provide strict prices the night before and overall I think I held back more investors than were helped. Thus we are returned to the way we handled the model in prior years.
Possibles Model Stocks from shopping list: FUQI, SUTR,
CHARTS that look good: See Home Page or reports.
NASDAQ FUTURES: + 2.00 currently; S&P 500 futures: + 1.20 and + 0.15 for Russ 2000 (CME). DJIA appears after 12:30 T on money.cnn.com site and currently. + 1.00.
Yahoo Earnings Calendar: (week of 19-23 May)
MON: DRYS 4.40; EXM 1.79; RAVN .52
TUE: HPQ .85; HD .37
WED: SOLF 1.12 RB = .14 US I think)
THUR: None Seen
FRI: None seen
http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/del/globex.html or http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
NOTE: One of my favorite strategies (not original, but one used by Wall Street in bygone days) is to sell half on a double, especially when it is still less than fair value. IVAC was our first double in the model for 2006 with buy on 1 January at 13.20 and sell at 30.65 and in 2005 model bought at 11.10 on 11/10/05. We sold 1/2 of OMNI on 7/7/06 for 110% gain from 5/24/06 buy.
IN PLACE ORDERS: (Click on symbol to see charts on Stockcharts.com - also gives DMA and RSI information) I frequently give a range of prices so all orders of interested subscribers don't happen at the identical price.
BUY BO OR ON PULLBACK or IMPROVED MARKET SITUATION.
SUTR(7) - BUY 500 sh @ 7.05 p.b. Friday only - then we'll evaluate for next week. Steel stock (China) and reported 5/15. RSI 70.8 and S.I. 0.1. Big move after reporting earnings, perhaps a buy on p.b. near $7. First decent pullback on 5/22.
HOLD/SELL/Salvage:
AEY (0) - HOLD 600 shares and SELL @ 4 area on bounce. We sold 1/2 in front of earnings @ 5.98 but with the flat earnings and revenues, I don't plan to buy back for model. Short interest 0.8 days. RSI 44.1 Reported 5/12
SELL BASED ON FAIR VALUE DETERMINED TARGETS (NO RUSH)
Other select potential stocks of interest: Last updated:comments 5/19; short interest 5/7. Ratings 5/18 updated
AEHR(8) - Semi - test eq, RSI 55.8 and 50 DMA 8.16 and working on a nice base. S.I. 0.3 days.
AUY(10) - Bought back at 13.98. Gold stock we sold out of model and looked for possible p.b. buy in 13-14 area. RSI 54.2 and S.I. 0.3 days.
BOLT (4), Good energy stock. RSI 48.8 and 50 DMA 18.74 with recent low of 15.00. L.T. 64. S.I. 8.9. High short interest keeps me from buying it back for the model at this time - reported 4/25.
BPHX (3) - HOLD ON SALVAGE Bought 400 shares at 14.75 p.b. on 1/31. RSI 59.5 . 9 DMA 9.19 and S.I. 4.0 days. Long Target $33. We swapped for BOLT (but it kept on dropping). It is currenly back over 11 and trying to break out.
CDS (5) - Bought 800 sh on 3/31 @ 7.50. It hit low of 5.10 and bounced. Target of $22 in 2008. RSI 54.8 with 9 DMA at 9.14. They expanded into 51% ownership of a China mine. S.I. 5.3 Big jump in short interest - caution here. Moved from ASE to Nasdaq. Reported 5/8.
CSIQ(9) - BOUGHT 200 addit. sh @ 18.52 AVG 400 total. RSI 72.0 and 50 DMA is 25.93. Low on 1/22 was 14.74. S.I. 2.2 days. Reported 5/13. We filled an extra 100 sh @ 19.02 and I got a second fill @ 18.02 for average of 18.52 for the long run. http://seekingalpha.com/article/62836-why-canadian-solar-is-the-best-solar-stock?source=yahoo It was up strong on 3/25 upgrade and broke out of a base. Sold 200 in front of 5/13 earnings. Beat estimates by almost double and shot higher.
DAR (7) - Bought 500 sh @ 15.02/14.02 as rating jumped from 5 to 8 on last earnings report. Decent support in $14-15 area and fair value is $26 long term. RSI 54.4 and short interest under 2 days. Some selling pressure caused by insider selling news.
DXPE (2) - We first BOUGHT 150 sh @ 25.09. It ran to nearly 60 and pulled back in weak market and more on 1M shelf offering. Target $55 and has 53.2 RSI. Strong earnings of .80 last Q. S.I. 2.2 Reports 5/12 after the close.
GHM (9) - SOLD 200 sh @ 57.65 for 93% gain. Bought 200 shares at 30.82 p.b. on 1/31. Looked oversold at the time and then a beautiful bo from symmetric triangle on 4/3. RSI 68.2 and still going higher. S.I. 0.2.
GSI (9) - BUY 500 sh @ 8.70 on p.b. to 50/200 DMA ONE DAY ONLY. China steel stock worth watching. S.I. 3.4 RSI 50.4 and recent low of 6.25. Reported 5/15. Working on a base again after a nice move on comments about buying out other steel companies.
GTI (7) - We missed Buy of 400 GTI @ 11.50 pullback price. It had a large short interest but there was plenty of covering on a good earnings report. Target is $24 long term. RSI 74.0 S.I. 2.9 Next report 8/1.
HPQ (3) - Bought 100 sh @ 46.02 p.b on 8/21. Large cap tech company (especially printers and computers) that has been pretty solid all year. Short interest 2.3 days and with sector average pe of 26.0 the near term target is $77. Still looks attractive in 44-45 area. RSI 48.5. Reports 5/13.
LMIA(6) - We bought 300 @ 26.51 on 1 Jan (carried over from 2007). L. Target is $44. RSI is 54.6. 9 DMA (21.17)S.I. 2.0. Reported 5/8.
NLY(7) - Finance-equity REIT with 5% yield with 71% in fixed securities and short interest of 2.2 days. RSI 55.7. Already reported on 4/30. Sold 200 on 3/10 in swap for 200 CSIQ. Back over 200 DMA 16.31 and sold the last 200 at 16.35 on news of secondary. Decent earnings but sluggish although chart now starting to look more attractive. Next earnings 7/30.
NM (6) - SOLD 400 NM @ 14.15 area 10/5. Dry bulk carrier (shipper). Moves with shipping sector. 0.4 days S.I. and long target $29. RSI 63.4.
QID (no rating) - Bought 200 sh at 42.50 on 4/24. Watch for QQQQ breaks out, if buying, use tight stops in case of market reversal.
SOLF (5)- Solar stock that has a good shart and forward PE. RSI 78.6 and 50 DMA at 13.82 and reports 5/21. S.I. 2.4 days and target of $44+ long term.
SUTR(7) - Steel stock (China) and reported 5/15. RSI 70.8 and S.I. 0.1. Big move after reporting earnings, perhaps a buy on p.b. $7. First pullback 5/22.
TBSI(10) - BOUGHT 200 sh at $33.06 first of year. RSI 65.9 Short interest 1.9 and long term f.v. of $67. It hit low of $17.69 and bounced and still looks oversold. Strong earnings last time and forecast for next quarter. Recent low 25.69. Reported strong earnings on 5/8 and well above estimate. Nice bo over 35.
TGB(5) - Bought 1300 shares at 3.69 on 8/16. Target estimate is $20 (gold stock) and perhaps higher if it ever really starts moving. It had been considered for the model in the past but don't think we actully hit a fill. S.I. 1.6 days. RSI 50.9 Running at 9 DMA (5.31). Reported 5/13.
TTES (9) - RSI 66.5 and 21 DMA 58.44 pulled back and bounced off 37.7 low and then 39.37. S.I. 3.4 Good earnings and nice breakout. Got close to Long target $64.
UFPT(7) - Tech stock of possible interest. RSI 65.3 and Short interest 0.1.
UTF (N/A) - BOUGHT 200sh @ 27.38 on 1/2. Utilities etf for high after tax returns with yield near 6% and a decent growth chart as well. Likely candidate for 2008 model. If the stock goes up 6% that is a 12% gain for the year. For 11 months of 2007 it is up 15%. RSI 64.6 and 9 DMA @ 24.83. (Distrib: $1.61) S.I> 0.1 Sold out of model on 4/1 @ 23.45.
WSCI(8) - RSI 54.7 and nice base at $8 with 50 DMA of 12.28. Estimated target $15 (recent high 17.64), reported after hours on 4/3. S.I. 0.1 Nice move after report on 4/7 - looks to move above fair value (momo play).
Hot Topics (Pacific Standard Time)